We're weighing building a 4th cabin on the vacant lot. Before that call, it's worth knowing the exit: what the three cabins would likely sell for today as a package — and what building the 4th unit would do to that number.
Same premise as the build case: we own the land, driveway and utilities under fc1 / fc2 / fc3, and we're deciding whether to add a 4th unit for ~$210K (or ~$260K treehouse-look). Here's the exit value on both sides of that decision. Quad figures are income math, not a BPO.
A sale value is only as good as the income under it. We start from proven numbers, not a guess.
Last-30 occupancy of ~91% at cheap $120–150 floors (to Aug 18) is not a new annual. Do not replace the ~$105K trio basis with a 30-day run-rate.
Building a season-by-season curve from that anchor — using the read that winter (Jan–Mar) runs lighter, but the cabins hold up through fall and up through Christmas (October is Bryson City's #1 month; the Nov–Dec Polar Express is a second peak):
Per-cabin monthly revenue shape (gold = peak months). Reality check: this curve implies ~$11.0K/cabin for the May 5–Aug 3 window vs the $11.3K we actually booked — i.e. it's slightly conservative, so it's a fair basis.
| Scenario | Per cabin / yr | Trio gross / yr |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative (winter soft, ADR flat) | ~$31.7K | ~$95K |
| Base (holds through fall + Christmas) | ~$35K | ~$105K |
| Upside (still "new / underpriced" — ADR climbs) | ~$38K | ~$115K |
STR packages sell on income. We use three lenses and make sure they agree:
The one number that swings everything is operating expense, which depends on who buys it:
| Buyer type | Opex | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Owner-operator (self-manages) | ~32% | Own spring water = cheap utilities; cleaning is a guest pass-through; no mgmt fee |
| Passive investor (hires a manager) | ~42% | 20–25% management fee, higher reserves, tax reassessment |
| Blended base used here | ~37% | Splits the difference |
Cap rate: small-cabin STR packages in western NC trade higher than long-term rentals (seasonal, more volatile income). We model 8.5% (aggressive/turnkey) to 10.5% (conservative), base 9.5%.
Base gross $105K · blended 37% opex → NOI ~$66K. The trio sale story is unchanged.
| Cap rate | Implied value |
|---|---|
| 8.5% (turnkey / aggressive buyer) | ~$780K |
| 9.5% (base) | ~$700K |
| 10.5% (conservative buyer) | ~$630K |
Cross-checks line up: GRM $105K × 6.5 ≈ $683K · per-door ≈ $233K/cabin. Across all buyer types and rent scenarios the full spread is ~$580K (passive + conservative) to ~$840K (owner-op + upside).
Two 4th-unit cases at 9.5% cap, 37% opex, plus the old-model row for comparison. Income math, not a BPO.
| 4th-unit case | 4th gross | 4-unit gross | NOI | Value @ 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old model | +$35K | $140K | $88K | ~$930K |
| Conservative mid | +$67K | $172K | $108K | ~$1.14M |
| Upside mid | +$78K | $183K | $115K | ~$1.21M |
Conservative 4th-unit gross band ~$58–76K → quad ~$1.05–1.15M at 9.5% if a buyer believes the TTM. Upside 4th ~$64–93K. Do not take $1.14M to the bank — a buyer will haircut until ~12 months of data.
This is the whole point. At every reasonable cap rate the 4th unit still at least pays for itself — and with corrected occupancy the paper income add is larger than the old +$35K.
| At 9.5% | Trio | Quad | Value added | vs spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old model (+$35K gross / $210K build) | $696K | $928K | +$232K | +$22K vs $210K |
| Conservative mid (+$67K / $210K) | ~$700K | ~$1.14M | +$440K | +$230K vs $210K |
| Conservative mid vs $260K treehouse | ~$700K | ~$1.14M | +$440K | +$180K vs $260K |
Even if you eventually sell instead of holding, building the 4th unit is still the right equity move after zoning / septic / quotes: the income math is stronger than the old $930K if occupancy holds, and the build still covers its own cost in package value.
The one honest caveat: a fresh unit's value is proven over its first year, so the cleanest path is build it, season it for ~12 months, then decide to hold or list — by then the quad number is real, not projected.