Fresh-eyes update Aug 19, 2026. Same lot. Occupancy was too low in the old model. $250–300 is the nicer-unit thesis. Cost segregation stays.
The proposal: build a tiny home on foundation on our vacant 4th Shepherds Creek lot (same land, driveway and utilities as fc1 / fc2 / fc3). All-in ~$150K lean to ~$210K base (park-model); premium / treehouse-look paths run higher. Every return below is estimated.
Our three existing Shepherds Creek cabins (fc1 / fc2 / fc3) share this exact land. Their most recent summer window shows the location is a strong earner — which is the whole reason a 4th unit is worth building.
3 cabins combined · check-in window May 5 – Aug 3, 2026 (Hospitable)
Last 30 days to Aug 18, 2026 (Hospitable) — per cabin
The important thing to understand about this build: most of the cost is the site, not the structure. Septic, water tie-in, electric, deck, hot tub, fire pit, grading and steps to the creek run ~$55–70K and have to happen no matter what we set on the lot. The tiny home unit itself (delivered on a foundation) is only $80–109K of the total on the old lean-to-base path. Site work is locked-ish either path. Quotes still not in hand.
| Line item | Lean | Base |
|---|---|---|
| Tiny home (unit + foundation + set) | $80,000 | $109,000 |
| Septic (single unit) | $12,000 | $15,000 |
| Water tie-in to spring system | $8,000 | $10,000 |
| Electrical service | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Deck (creek-view, wraps unit) | $8,000 | $15,000 |
| Hot tub + pad + 240V | $7,000 | $9,000 |
| Fire pit / feature | $2,000 | $4,000 |
| Gravel pad / parking / grading | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Steps to creek + landscaping | $4,000 | $8,000 |
| Permits / misc | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| FF&E (furnish + kit out) | $4,000 | $9,000 |
| Contingency (~10%) | $16,000 | $16,000 |
| ALL-IN | ~$150K | ~$210K |
The structure line is the biggest swing — get 2–3 park-model / tiny-home quotes to pin it down. Septic (~$15K) and the spring water tie-in (~$10K) are effectively locked from what we already know of the site.
2026 path — estimated, not bids. Decide the path before requesting quotes.
| Path | All-in (est.) | When it makes sense |
|---|---|---|
| Park-model lean-to-base | $150–210K | Old concept, still valid |
| Park-model premium finishes | $200–250K est. | Needed for $250–300 without building in the trees |
| Post-and-beam / treehouse-look with full bath | $200–280K est. | Design-comp path vs the Alabama listing / a named local treehouse |
| Nelson-grade custom | $300K+ | Do not |
Two estimated cases replace the old 45 / 47 / 50% occupancy table. 365-day year. Opex 30% estimated (owner-operator, cleaning treated as a guest pass-through). Revenue = ADR × occupancy × 365. Do not include a $400 row — that is the Alabama lake treehouse, not a Bryson City base.
Case A — conservative (raised-cabin rates, existing-three occupancy). Estimated.
| Case A | ADR | Occ | Annual rev | NOI (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $200 | 80% | $58,400 | $40,880 |
| Mid | $215 | 85% | $66,761 | $46,733 |
| High | $230 | 90% | $75,555 | $52,889 |
Case B — upside (Lachuck $250–300, unique unit, 70–85% occ). Estimated.
| Case B | ADR | Occ | Annual rev | NOI (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $250 | 70% | $63,875 | $44,713 |
| Mid | $275 | 77.5% | $77,778 | $54,445 |
| High | $300 | 85% | $93,075 | $65,153 |
Payback on $210K using mid NOI (estimated): conservative ~4.5 yr (~22% yield); upside ~3.9 yr (~26%). The old report was 8.6 yr / 12% because occupancy was 47%.
The $400 number came from an Alabama listing Lachuck sent — not from Bryson City. Identify it, then haircut it.
Listing: airbnb.com/rooms/935624429446919784 — identified as Wanderlust Treehouse / Firefly, Crane Hill, AL. 2 guests, adults only, 1 bed / 1.5 bath, ~15 ft up, 40 acres, seasonal 2-acre lake. Kitchenette, not a full kitchen. No WiFi / TV. Check-in Mon / Wed / Fri only. Airbnb 4.99 / 532 reviews.
Aggregator ~$500 avg/night; a 2023 article ~$350. The live Airbnb page was a 503 on Aug 19, so treat the ~$500 as aggregator, not a live calendar.
Local asking rates (not ADR): ordinary 1–2BR Bryson City ~$160–250; Dreaming Tree (“Bryson’s only REAL TreeHouse”) from ~$241; true canopy uniques $370–530+. Consistent with $250–300, not $400.
This is where a build on land we already own beats buying a finished STR. Two things make it an unusually strong cost-segregation candidate:
| Class (Base $210K build) | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 5-yr personal property (FF&E, hot-tub equip, built-in appliances) | ~$33K | 16% |
| 15-yr land improvements (deck, septic, water, fire pit, grading, steps) | ~$63K | 30% |
| 27.5-yr structural shell | ~$114K | 54% |
| Short-life (5 + 15 yr) — bonus-eligible | ~$96K | ~45% |
With 100% bonus depreciation (restored permanently by the 2025 federal tax law for property placed in service after Jan 19, 2025), that entire ~$96K of short-life can be written off in year one. On a Lean $150K build the short-life is ~$66K.
| Our marginal rate (fed + ~4% NC) | Base build yr-1 tax saving | Lean build |
|---|---|---|
| ~28% (24% fed) | ~$27K | ~$18K |
| ~36% (32% fed) | ~$35K | ~$24K |
| ~41% (37% fed) | ~$40K | ~$27K |
Because a tiny home on foundation is real property, it's mortgage-able — an edge an RV or trailer doesn't have. The realistic structure: finance 80% of the structure (the unit + its foundation/set); pay cash for the site work, amenities and FF&E (a lender won't collateralize those well). Assumes an 8% / 20-yr loan on the structure. Cash in $86K lean / $122K base. Debt service $6.4K / $8.8K on the structure. Cash flow below uses the new mid NOI (estimated).
| Build | Structure | Loan (80%) | Cash in | Debt svc | Cons. mid CF / CoC | Upside mid CF / CoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lean ($150K all-in) | $80K | $64K | $86K | $6.4K | $40.3K · ~47% | $48.0K · ~56% |
| Base ($210K all-in) | $110K | $88K | $122K | $8.8K | $37.9K · ~31% | $45.6K · ~37% |
Lean: cons. mid NOI $46.7K − $6.4K = $40.3K CoC ~47%; upside mid $54.4K − $6.4K = $48.0K CoC ~56%. Base: cons. $46.7K − $8.8K = $37.9K CoC ~31%; upside $54.4K − $8.8K = $45.6K CoC ~37%. All estimated. These look high because occupancy was the old model’s miss.
The cost-seg write-off lands in year 1, on top of operating cash flow. Counting the tax saving as a return on the cash we put in (at a ~36% marginal rate):
Lean is similar, even higher. Year-1 all-in is ops + a one-time tax shield — it does not repeat.
The honest argument, both sides, for the partners to weigh.
The lot is still the right build dollar on land we already own — after the $0 work on 6883 and the combo listing, and after the §8 gates. Occupancy was the old model's miss; the tax shield is real but one-time; $250–300 needs a nicer unit, not a $400 Alabama fantasy.
Clear the checklist, watch the creek experiment, and do not write a construction check until quotes are in hand.