Bottom Line
| Measure | Conclusion |
|---|---|
| FMV to a generic buyer | ~$1.6M – $1.8M (10–12% cap on ~$170–175K EBITDA, RE-anchored; fully-booked 2026 supports the top of the range) |
| Investment value to you | Up to ~$1.9–2.0M — but that's paying yourself for your own lodging + staffing synergy |
| Seller's real floor | ~$1.41M of balance-sheet debt (Normans $1.196M + Parkers $211K). They still clear $300–500K at a $1.7–1.9M price |
(March guidance was open $1.85M / target $1.95–2.05M / walk $2.2M.)
Normalized EBITDA — Rebuilt
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Earned 2025 revenue (booking ledger, events that occurred) | $394,256 |
| Reported operating expenses | ($181,422) |
| Add back: mortgage interest | +$49,023 |
| Cash opex ex-financing | ($132,399) |
| Staffing top-up (payroll $43K → ~$105K market) | ($62,000) |
| NEW: Maintenance / capex reserve (R&M was only $1,489 on $1.05M of buildings — not credible) | ($15,000–20,000) |
| NEW: Property-tax step-up on sale ($4,050 now → ~$11–12K at an ~$1.8M basis) | ($7,500) |
| Normalized EBITDA | ~$170,000 – $175,000 |
March pegged this at ~$197–200K. The ~$25K reduction is the maintenance reserve plus the property-tax reassessment that a buyer will actually face.
Five Things That Changed vs. March
1. EBITDA is ~$25K lower
March missed a maintenance/capex reserve and the property-tax step-up that hits on sale. Both are real, recurring buyer costs.
2. The "$1.65M asset floor" is soft
That floor was built on the seller's book values, not an appraisal. Land at $695K book = ~$63K/acre, well above Burke County norms ($15–45K/acre), and a special-use event barn has limited alternative-use value. A realistic alt-use floor is $1.2–1.5M, not $1.65M.
3. ~$100K+ of prepaid deposits transfer as a liability
The "unapplied cash" on the P&L is 2026+ wedding deposits the sellers have already collected (and largely spent). The buyer must deliver those events but only collects the balances. That requires a deposit credit at closing — a real price reduction nobody priced in March.
4. We now know the seller's true floor
Balance-sheet debt is ~$1.41M (Normans $1.196M + Parkers $211K). They need roughly that to clear — but still walk with $300–500K at a $1.7–1.9M price. Useful leverage: an offer in the high $1.7s is a real, life-changing check for them, not a lowball.
5. Revenue is durable, not declining
2026 is essentially fully booked at ~$419K, and peak Saturdays are now $9,200–$9,700 (the price increases are sticking). That supports the top of the FMV range and de-risks the income approach.
Added Diligence Items (from this pass)
- Pull actual Burke County land comps + the tax card (test the $63K/acre book land value)
- Confirm prepaid deposit balances event-by-event (sizes the closing credit)
- Obtain 2023–2024 P&L for a real multi-year trend
Source detail: Desktop/Claude/hidden-hill/SESSION_NOTES_2026-06-12.md ·
hidden-hill/REFERENCE.md. Rebuilt from Venue_PnL_Raw.csv,
Venue_BS_Raw.csv, Venue_Bookings_Raw.csv.